Journal of Economic Surveys (2016) Vol. 30, No. 3，吴建峰、Maximilian Auffhammer、孙伟增、郑思齐发表文章THE DECOMPOSITION AND DYNAMICS OF INDUSTRIAL CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FOR 287 CHINESE CITIES IN 1998–2009.

THE DECOMPOSITION AND DYNAMICS OF INDUSTRIAL CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FOR 287 CHINESE CITIES IN 1998–2009

Maximilian Auffhammer

UC Berkeley & National Bureau of Economic Research

Weizeng Sun

Jinan University & Tsinghua University

Jianfeng Wu

Fudan University

Siqi Zheng*

Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Tsinghua University

作者简介

吴建峰，复旦大学中国社会主义市场经济研究中心副教授，研究方向为城市与区域经济学、房地产经济学。2009年6月获得新加坡国立大学博士。发表论文见之于《经济学（季刊）》、《城市发展研究》、China Economic Review、Journal of Economic Surveys等期刊。出版著作《经济改革、集聚经济和不均衡增长：中国产业空间分布的经济学观察1980-2010》（北京大学出版社，2014年）。现主持国家自然科学基金项目：基于微观地理数据的区县重组的本地化效应研究（项目批准号71573054）。曾主持国家自然科学基金项目：中国产业空间布局演变：事实、规律与政策含义（项目批准号71003026）。曾参加住房和城乡建设部国家“十二五”城镇化发展战略研究（2009年）。荣获上海市第十二届哲学社会科学优秀成果奖二等奖（2014年）。

内容简介Abstract:

85% of China’s GHG emissions are attributed to urban economic activities, and this share is expected to rise given China’s fast urbanization process. This paper provides estimates of city level industrial CO2 emissions and their growth rates for all 287 Chinese prefecture-level and above cities during the years 1998–2009.We decompose the CO2 emission changes into scale, composition and technique effects. The decomposition results show that these three effects differ significantly across the three tiers of cities in China. The scale effect contributes to rising CO2 emissions, while the technique effect leads to declining CO2 emissions in all cities. The composition effect leads to increasing CO2 emissions in the third-tier cities, while it reduces CO2 emissions in the first and second-tier cities, due to the relocation of energy-intensive industries from the latter to the former type of cities. Based on these decomposition results, we identify the separate channels through which the inflow of FDI and the environmental regulations affect city-level CO2 emissions. The decomposition framework in our paper can help policy makers and scholars to better understand Chinese cities’ trade-offs between economic growth and environmental goals.

Keywords：

Chinese cities; Decomposition; Industrial carbon dioxide

摘要：

城市经济活动贡献了中国85%的温室气体排放。伴随着中国快速的城市化进程，这一比重有望继续上升。本文估计了1998-2009年期间中国287个地级及以上城市CO2排放量和其增长率。我们将CO2排放量的变化分解为规模、结构及技术三种效应。分解的结果显示，三种效应在城市间差别显著。规模效应引起所有城市CO2排放量增加，技术效应引起所有城市CO2排放量减少。由于能源密集型产业从一、二线城市向三线城市转移，结构效应增加了三线城市CO2排放量，而减少了一线和二线城市CO2的排放量。基于以上分解的结果，我们验证了FDI和环保规制影响城市CO2排放量的机制。本文的分解框架有助于政策制定者和学者更好地理解中国城市在经济增长和环保目标间的权衡。

关键词: 中国城市；效应分解；工业二氧化碳

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