题目：Income allocation and the growth and fluctuation of the Chinese economy: 1998-2009

主讲人：Dr. Qiangbing Chen, Researcher, CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.

Abstract

We use the Harrod-Domar growth model to analyze the impact of national income allocation on the growth and fluctuation of the Chinese economy. We focus on the mechanisms through which income allocation influences the national saving rate, which in turn affects the effective demand and the aggregate output. Particularly, when the national saving rate increases, the sustainability of the economic growth critically depends on whether investment and net exports are large enough to absorb the growing domestic saving. We show how this mechanism is able to explain some of the main characteristics of the China’s economic growth and fluctuation in the period of 1998-2009. The policy implication of the paper is that, under the condition that the world economy can not continue to accommodate the large size of China’s net exports, China needs to take decisive actions to reform the current income allocation mechanism with the aim of boosting domestic consumption demand.