主题：Revisiting Baumol's Cost Disease: A Perspective Based on Open Economy and Input-output Linkages

主讲：邱斌 教授

会议时间：2024年11月12日 13:30-15:00

会议地点：半岛·体育bob官方网站714会议室

内容简介：Maintaining a stable proportion of the manufacturing sector is crucial for deeply implementing the strategy of building a strong manufacturing nation. This paper combines the classical Baumol's cost disease model with the Ricardian model to construct a general equilibrium model encompassing multiple countries and sectors Based on this, simplified models are employed to demonstrate the impact of international trade, input-output linkages, productivity progress in the service sector, and liberalization of services import on Baumol's cost disease. Subsequently, within the model framework, the paper calculates the changes in productivity and trade costs across various sectors in China over the years. By incorporating data on productivity changes, trade cost changes, and input-output linkages into both the simplified and complete models, the quantitative model is used to estimate the impacts of these shocks. Both the model and quantitative estimates show that trade and input-output linkages can effectively mitigate the cost disease in progressive sectors, but the intensity of their effects differs significantly. Meanwhile, the current rate of productivity growth in the service sector has not yet effectively addressed the occurrence of cost disease, and liberalizing service imports is also an effective means of alleviating Baumol's cost disease. In addition, the heterogeneity test of further disaggregating service sector classifications has effectively validated the robustness of the conclusions in this paper.