题目：Competition and Gains from Trade: A Quantitative Analysis of China Between 1995 and 2004
Singapore Management University
时间：2017年4月25日（周二）13:30-15:00
Abstract: This paper provides a quantitative analysis of gains from trade for China over the period of 1995--2004, which was when China's openness drastically improved. The focus of the welfare analysis is on the contribution of pro-competitive effects relative to a traditional Ricardian effect. Moreover, we compare the total gains from trade with the ACR (Arkolakis, Costinot, and Rodriguez-Clare 2012) formula, which nests a class of important trade models, but without pro-competitive effects. Our quantitative analysis shows that the pro-competitive effects account for 25.4% of the total welfare gains from improved openness during 1995--2004. Moreover, local to our estimated models, the total gains from trade are 11∼20% larger than what would result from the ACR formula. As such extra gains are mostly due to pro-competitive effects, this indicates that competition does lead to larger gains from trade. In our multi-sector analysis, we find that when a sectoral markup is higher in 1995, there tends to be a larger reduction in the respective sectoral trade cost between 1995 and 2004, a tendency that is generally welfare improving. One methodological advantage of this paper's quantitative framework is that its application is not constrained by industrial or product classifications, and so it can be applied to countries of any size.
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