主题：Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia

主讲: Harald Finger

Deputy Division Chief, Regional Studies Division of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department

Alberto Behar

Economist, Regional Studies Division of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department

时间：2013年11月7日（周四）14:00-15:30

地点：半岛·体育bob官方网站201会议室

Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia

The near-term economic outlook for the Middle East region has weakened, and risks are tilted to the downside. Difficult political transitions and increased regional uncertainties weigh on confidence in the oil-importing countries. Growth in these countries remains well below the levels necessary to reduce high unemployment and improve living standards. Meanwhile, in the oil-exporting countries, weak global demand and domestic supply disruptions have reduced oil production, notwithstanding recent upward pressure arising from increased geopolitical risks. Medium-term economic prospects are clouded by rising fiscal vulnerabilities, declining productivity, and fragmented labor markets. Although economic activity in the Caucasus and Central Asia continues to expand at a fast clip, risks are also on the rise, including to a further slowdown in Russia and China and unaddressed structural impediments. The presentation will provide an update on these developments and policy recommendations, and will highlight spillovers and linkages with China.

Harald Finger is Deputy Division Chief in the Regional Studies Division of the International Monetary Fund’s Middle East and Central Asia Department. Harald co-directs the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook publication and contributions on the region for the World Economic Outlook. He is the IMF’s Mission Chief to the United Arab Emirates. Harald joined the IMF in 2001, and his work experience has included emerging markets and other developing countries in Africa, the Caribbean, the Middle East, South America and South Asia, along with a topical focus on vulnerable emerging markets. Prior to joining the IMF, he was a Senior Economist at Deutsche Bank covering Germany and the euro area. Harald obtained a Master’s degree in International Economics from Maastricht University and completed the Advanced Studies Program in International Economic Policy Research at the Kiel Institute for World Economics.

Alberto Behar is an Economist in the Regional Studies Division of the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund. He is an author of the Regional Economic Outlook and writes on the region for the World Economic Outlook. Alberto studied and taught at the University of Cape Town before attaining a doctorate in Economics from Nuffield College at the University of Oxford. He was the Biegun Warburg Junior Research Fellow and Lecturer at St Anne’s College and a post-doctoral research fellow in the Centre for the Study of African Economies in Oxford, and has worked in the Development Economics Group at the World Bank. He has authored and refereed a number of publications on labor economics and international trade.